2015 MTV VMA Predictions & Preview

By Steven Gottlieb on August 30, 2015 @ 7:35am PDT | Comments (0)

I'll be at the VMAs tonight, so if you want to stay in the loop on winners in realish time, follow my Twitter. Or, you know, use that TV thing and tune-in: The 2015 MTV VMAs air tonight, Sunday, at 9/8c. (Yes, there's also an All-Access Live Stream) And if you tune-in an hour early you'll also get the Pre-Show which promises the premiere of Taylor Swift's new "Wildest Dreams" video, and after the show we get Justin Bieber's new "What Do You Mean?" video. There's also a new Nick Jonas video for "Levels" that's out tonight, plus who knows what else.

The real sport of VMA predictions is guessing what the performance surprises will be — I vote Iron Maiden, because I love to be wrong —  but let's just stick with a breakdown of every category, OK?

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

Beyonce "7/11" and Taylor Swift "Bad Blood" are like the Yin/Yang of modern pop video. On one hand you have a seemingly effortless music video that looks awesome, but also the kind of thing she decided to make on a lark one afternoon with an iPhone and some friends. On the other, we have Taylor Swift in a big-budget, high concept, highly detailed bonanza with an insane amount of girl power cameos that looks like it spent months to execute. Both great, both effective. 

Kendrick Lamar "Alright" is my video of the year, however. It's surprising, daring, powerful and timely. Do the right thing, voters. 

BEST MALE VIDEO

I'd like to go with Kendrick Lamar, but knowing that stardom is often the defining element here,  I have a suspsicion that The Weeknd may nab this Moon Man. Dude is on fire (at least in his "Can't Feel My Face" video).

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

I think this is between Beyonce and Taylor, which means Nicki Minaj will win. 

BEST HIP HOP VIDEO

I think "See You Again" is more of a pop song than a Hip-Hop song, so let's rule that one out. "Trap Queen" is a surprisingly sweet song that's like a Femininst revision of that old Biblical tale: If you give a woman drugs she'll be high for a bit, but teach her to cook it up herself and she'll be self-sufficient and fully empowered woman. And she'll even hang with you at the strip clubs.

That said, how can we not go Kendrick "Alright" for this one. 

BEST POP VIDEO

Throw a dart on this one and let me know who you hit. 

BEST ROCK VIDEO

Walk The Moon will win and director Josh Forbes will accept on their behalf. All will be cosmic in this world once again, for at least a few moment.

ARTIST TO WATCH presented by Taco Bell®

Everyone loves Taco Bell®. And everybody loves Fetty Wap®. And registered marks.

BEST COLLABORATION

Wiz + Charlie is a big (very big) record and. But, so was "Uptown Funk" with Bruno and Ronson. I'd guess it would be between those two, which means that Ariana and The Weeknd win. (See, how I've learned from past guesses?)

VIDEO WITH A SOCIAL MESSAGE

I never like thematic categories, or social messages. Ditto for the new Song of the Summer category, which isn't even a video category.

Anyway. I predict "Bitch Better Have My Money" will win via write-in. 

BEST ART DIRECTION

OK, we're in the nerdy categories we all know and love. I say this goes to that movie poster homage for Snoop Dogg, but wouldn't be surprised or mad if it went to that Bieber collabo.  

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Effortless is hard. Very hard. And Beyonce "7/11" feels effortless.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Flying Lotus feels like the one for me, yes?

BEST DIRECTION

Colin Tilley and The Little Homies. A next level work from Tilley (and The Little Homies, which is Kendrick Lamar and Top Dawg label head Dave Free).

BEST EDITING

I really like that "7/11" stutter-step, dont you?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The mighty GloriaFX obviously has a great shot here, and a great body of work, so odds are they win with 4 out of the 5 nominations. But, you've also got Taylor Swift with FX house Ingenuity Studios in the mix, who have been working with director Joseph Kahn for years and years. Choices, choices, choices... 

Anyway. Tune-in to the 2015 MTV VMAs tonight. It airs live at 9p on the East Coast, and at 8p in Central. All you West Coasters on PT get it three hours later... So, prepare to unplug completely unless you love spoilers.

And if you're at the show, hit me up!

Tags: News

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