Look, you know you care. You do. You’ll watch them. You’ll discuss them. You’ll post a witticism about Nicki Minaj and a snake. You’ll hope for the occasional disaster. Maybe you’ll even get it (see snake, bites). But, more likely you’ll get the 31st incarnation of the award show that basically defined the modern music award show — lots of performances, few awards — and that should dominate your conversations and your timeline.
Tune into MTV at 9/8c... And keep pegged to my @videostatic Twitter for updates from The Forum and more...
In the meantime, here's who I think should win... and who will win.
VIDEO OF THE YEAR:
- Iggy Azalea f/ Charli XCX "Fancy" (Director X, dir.)
- Beyoncé f/ JAY Z "Drunk In Love" (Hype Williams, dir.)
- Pharrell Williams "Happy" (We Are From L.A., dir.)
- Sia "Chandelier" (Sia & Daniel Askill, dir.)
- Miley Cyrus "Wrecking Ball" (Terry Richardson, dir.)
Should Win: I still say “Turn Down For What” is the best video of the year, but it can’t win, and not just because it’s not nominated. Awards at this level celebrate celebrity and/or create stars. Do you even know what DJ Snake looks like? He could be an actual snake for all you know. If anyone collected that Moonman, it would be co-director/star Daniel Kwan’s crotch. And as awesome as that would be, it would never happen.
Will Win: Iggy Azalea f/ Charli XCX “Fancy” represents the new generation of MTV stars and this could be their latest and biggest coronation. I wouldn't be surprised if Pharrell wins, because, well, he's Pharrell and all he do is win.
BEST HIP HOP:
- Eminem "Berzerk" (Syndrome, dir.)
- Drake f. Majid Jordan "Hold On, We’re Going Home" (Bill Pope, dir.)
- Childish Gambino "3005" (Hiro Murai, dir.)
- Kanye West "Black Skinhead" (Nick Knight, dir.)
- Wiz Khalifa "We Dem Boyz" (Ethan Lader, dir.)
Should Win: Childish Gambino, even if for no other reason than that “3005” is his best video to date, whereas all the other nominees have had clearly better and/or more popular videos.
Will Win: Eminem.
BEST MALE:
- Pharrell Williams "Happy" (We Are From L.A., dir.)
- John Legend "All Of Me" (NABIL, dir.)
- Ed Sheeran f/ Pharrell "Sing" (Emil Nava, dir.)
- Sam Smith "Stay With Me" (Jamie Thraves, dir.)
- Eminem f/ Rihanna "Monster" (Rich Lee, dir.)
Should Win: Pharrell Williams
Will Win: Pharrell Williams
BEST FEMALE:
- Iggy Azalea f/ Charli XCX "Fancy" (Director X, dir.)
- Beyonce "Partition" (Jake Nava, dir.)
- Lorde "Royals" (Joel Kefali, dir.)
- Ariana Grande f/ Iggy Azalea "Problem" (The Young Astronauts, dir.)
- Katy Perry "Dark Horse" (Mathew Cullen, dir.)
Should Win: The best video here is “Dark Horse” but running this data through the “hot right now matrix”™ says it will be Iggy Azalea f/ Charli XCX “Fancy”
Will Win: Ariana Grande f/ Iggy Azalea “Problem” (either way: it’s Iggy)
BEST POP:
- Pharrell Williams "Happy" (We Are From L.A., dir.)
- Iggy Azalea f/ Charli XCX "Fancy" (Director X, dir.)
- Jason Derulo f/ 2 Chainz "Talk Dirty" (Colin Tilley, dir.)
- Ariana Grande f/ Iggy Azalea "Problem" (The Young Astronauts, dir.)
- Avicii f/ Aloe Blacc "Wake Me Up" (Mark Seliger & CB Miller, dir.)
Should Win: Pharrell Williams
Will Win: Pharrell Williams
BEST ROCK:
- Imagine Dragons "Demons" (Isaac Halasima, dir.)
- Arctic Monkeys "Do I Wanna Know?" (David Wilson, dir.)
- The Black Keys "Fever" (Theo Wenner, dir.)
- Lorde "Royals" (Joel Kefali, dir.)
- Linkin Park "Until It's Gone" (Joe Hahn, dir.)
Should Win: Is Best Rock akin to the Grammy's Polka category at this point? Let's go with Arctic Monkeys “Do I Wanna Know” which is by far the best video here and the the breakthrough rock band of the year (and the most indie of the bunch too, which might explain things to some degree).
Will Win: Black Keys
MTV ARTIST TO WATCH:
- Sam Smith "Stay With Me" (Jamie Thraves, dir.)
- 5 Seconds of Summer "She Looks So Perfect" (Frank Borin, dir.)
- Charli XCX "Boom Clap" (Sing J. Lee, dir.)
- Schoolboy Q "Man Of The Year" (Dave Free, Scott Fleishman, Fredo Tovar, dir.)
- Fifth Harmony "Miss Moving On" (Hannah Lux Davis, dir.)
Should Win: 5 Seconds of Summer
Will Win: 5 Seconds of Summer (fan voting for the win, people)
BEST COLLABORATION:
- Beyoncé f/ JAY Z "Drunk In Love" (Hype Williams, dir.)
- Ariana Grande f/ Iggy Azalea "Problem" (The Young Astronauts, dir.)
- Pitbull f/ Ke$ha "Timber" (David Rousseau, dir.)
- Chris Brown f/ Lil Wayne and Tyga "Loyal" (Chris Brown, dir.)
- Eminem f/ Rihanna "Monster" (Rich Lee, director)
- Katy Perry "Dark Horse" (Mathew Cullen, dir.)
Should Win: Beyonce x Jay Z
Will Win: Beyonce x Jay Z… I mean, how can you not want these two on-stage together in a potentially unguarded and unreleased moment. Or, maybe the gossip mill is hoping Beyonce will announced some other massive news on this stage.
MTV CLUBLAND AWARD:
- DJ Snake & Lil Jon "Turn Down For What" (Daniels, dir.)
- Zedd f/ Hayley Williams "Stay The Night" (Daniel Cloud Campos, dir.)
- Calvin Harris "Summer" (Emil Nava, dir.)
- Martin Garrix "Animals" (Mark Loonen, dir.)
Disclosure "Grab Her" (Emile Sornin, dir.)
Should Win: DJ Snake & Lil Jon "Turn Down For What"
Will Win: DJ Snake & Lil Jon "Turn Down For What"
BEST VIDEO WITH A SOCIAL MESSAGE
- Angel Haze f/ Sia “Battle Cry" (Frank Borin, dir.)
- Avicii "Hey Brother" (Jesse S, dir.)
- Beyonce “Pretty Hurts” (Melina Matsoukas, dir.)
- J.Cole f/ TLC "Crooked Smile" (Sheldon Candis, dir.)
- Kelly Rowland "Dirty Laundry" (Sarah McColgan, dir.)
- David Guetta f/ Mikky Ekko "One Voice" (Michael Jurkovac, dir.)
Should Win: How is “Turn Down For What” not in here?
Will Win: Beyonce “Pretty Hurts”
Tech Categories (below or click read more)
BEST DIRECTION
- DJ SNAKE & LIL JON "Turn Down For What" Daniels, director
- OK GO "The Writing's On The Wall" Damian Kulash, Aaron Duffy & Bob Partington, director
- MILEY CYRUS "Wrecking Ball" Terry Richardson, director
- BEYONCE "Pretty Hurts" Melina Matsoukas, director
- EMINEM f/ RIHANNA "The Monster" Rich Lee, director
Should/Will Win: I should be consistent with "Turn Down For What," but damned if that OK Go video isn't the most impressive and elaborate production of the year. That said, you can swing a wrecking ball and hit a well directed video in this category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 30 SECONDS TO MARS "City of Angels" David Devlin, DP
- BEYONCE "Pretty Hurts" Darren Lew & Jackson Hunt, DP
- ARCADE FIRE "Afterlife" Evan Prosofsky, DP
- GESAFFELSTEIN "Hate or Glory" Michael Ragen, DP
- LANA DEL REY "West Coast" Evan Prosofsky, DP
Should/Will Win: Arcade Fire "Afterlife" is beautiful, perfect. Wouldn't be surprised if 30 Seconds To Mars wins.
BEST EDITING
- EMINEM "Rap God" Ken Mowe, editor
- MGMT "Your Life is a Lie" Erik Laroi, editor
- ZEDD f/ HALEY WILLIAMS "Stay The Night" Daniel "Cloud" Campos, editor
- BEYONCE "Pretty Hurts" Jeff Selis, editor
- FITZ AND THE TANTRUMS "The Walker" James Fitzpatrick, editor
Should/Will Win: "Rap God" and "Your Life Is A Lie" stand out to me... Probably "Rap God" wins.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
- SIA "Chandelier" Ryan Heffington, choreographer
- BEYONCE "Partition" Svetlana Kostantinova/Philippe Decouflé, Additional choreography: Danielle Polanco, Frank Gatson, choreographer
- USHER "Good Kisser" Jamaica Kraft & Todd Sams, choreographer
- MICHAEL JACKSON f/ JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE "Love Never Felt So Good" Rich + Tone Talauega, choreographer
- JASON DERULO f/ 2 CHAINZ "Talk Dirty" Amy Allen, choreographer
- KIESZA "Hideaway" Ljuba Castot, choreographer
Should/Will Win: Sia "Chandelier"
BEST ART DIRECTION
- DJ SNAKE & LIL JON "Turn Down For What" Jason Kisvarday, art director
- IGGY AZALEA f/ CHARLI XCX "Fancy" David Courtemarche, art director
- EMINEM "Rap God" Alex Pacion, art director
- ARCADE FIRE "Reflektor" Anastasia Masaro, art director
- TYLER THE CREATOR "Tamale" Tom Lisowski, art director
Should/Will Win: I see this as either "Turn Down For What" or "Fancy"... I think "Fancy" wins since anyone who's seen Clueless can instantly see how well they nailed this video.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- DJ SNAKE & LIL JON "Turn Down For What" Daniels + Zak Stoltz, vfx
- OK GO "The Writing's On The Wall" 1stAveMachine, vfx
- DISCLOSURE "Grab Her!" Mathematic & Émile Sornin, vfx
- EMINEM "Rap God" Rich Lee, Louis Baker, Mammal Studios, Laundry!, and Sunset Edit, vfx
- JACK WHITE "Lazaretto" Mathematic and Jonas & François, vfx
Should/Will Win: Pedantic nerds may disagree, but I take visual effects to be the same as special effects for this category. As such, it's OK Go.
PS: Don't use this guide to wager on anything. You'll proabably lose money.
Tune into MTV TONIGHT, Sunday, August 24 @ 9pm e/p, for the live broadcast of The MTV Video Music Awards from The Forum, in Inglewood, CA.
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